Over the last handful of years the world has looked on as Fidel Castro-the last Communist hold-out of the old guard-has grown noticeably older and frail, transferred “temporary” authority of his regime to his younger brother Raul and now appears to have begun his decent into the annals of history as his physical and political incapacitation grows and his omnipresence over all things Cuban begins to fade.  In December of 2006 then Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte affirmed what an increasing number of pundits and Cub-watchers have begun to ascribe to and profess: that Fidel has “months, not years” to live.

As a result, a number of experts and policy-makers have been engaged in forecasting the path a post-Fidel Cuba might follow as they suggest ways in which U.S. policy toward Havana should be transformed.  Specifically, some speculate as to the particular political and economic course a second Castro regime will initiate and how this “fresh” path will affect change on the island. Calls have been made for a radical change in U.S. policy toward Cuba based on the premise that the mere demise of Fidel Castro will be the sole catalyst needed for deep reform in Havana.  The underlying conjecture in this line of thinking is that Cuba led by “Fidel light” (Raul Castro) will, of its own accord, choose a track that allows for a measured democratic transition, more political freedoms for the Cuban masses and introduce a calculated, Chinese-style, socialist-market economy-eventually leading to Cuba joining the community of democracies.

Cuban Reality

The unforgiving reality is that a smooth transition of power has already been implemented from Fidel to Raul and a half-dozen loyalists that were previously managing the tyrannical regime under his watch for decades.  This is the same inner-circle that has had a hand in depriving the Cuban people of the most basic liberties for generations and in the management of a stifling economic policy that has left the Cuban people destitute for over half-a-century.  Moreover, these are the very individuals that benefit from the status quo in Cuba as they reap the profits off exports, tourism and virtually all other economic activity.  The booming Cuban tourism industry is why in 2006 Forbes estimated Fidel Castro’s wealth at nearly $900 million dollars while his fellow countrymen lack some of the most basic provisions.

It has become painfully clear that Cuba is in no way being readied for a democratic or economic transition as those now with more control continue to reap the spoils of tyranny.  In fact, according to the 2006 report prepared by the Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba” the regime in Havana is actively and unquestionably attempting to insulate itself from the consequences of Fidel Castro’s incapacitation, death or ouster.”  Furthermore, the current regime in Havana is “working with like-minded governments, particularly Venezuela, to build a network of political and financial support designed to forestall any external pressure to change.”

Who is Raul Castro?

While Fidel was giving his notorious long-winded rhetoretical rants against the U.S. and the West in general, Raul was running Cuba’s economy into the ground; he spearheaded a Communist trade policy, brutalized the Cuban “justice” system, ran the political police and its Cuban version of gulags and directly controlled and profited from Cuba’s tourism industry.  It is clear that Raul represents the ideology and repression of the old-guard of Communism as much as-and possibly more than-his brother Fidel does.  Raul is a dogmatic ideologue who has gone to great efforts to convince the U.S. that he is a moderate and a reformer…much like his comrade Andropov did in the U.S.S.R. decades ago.

Despite reports that Raul is showing real signs of moderation through urging University students to “debate fearlessly” or through public communiques to U.S. officials demanding to meet at the negotiating table, hundreds of political prisoners remain behind bars, journalists still fear retaliation for attempting to report unfiltered news and the average Cuban is still deprived of the most basic liberties.  Raul Castro has given a number of public speeches doting over Cuba’s Communist Party as the “new” regime continues to harden its edges and is feverishly working to forestall any opportunity for a genuine democratic transition.

The Way Forward

In order to affect change on the island, Congress and the President must approach a second Castro regime with skepticism and a measured approach.  U.S. policy must aim to continue to maintain pressure on the regime while focusing efforts on those on the island deperate for change and a renewed deference to the Cuban identity.  Authentic and measurable reforms are still possible; however any approach that fails be retain a quid pro quo policy will only enhance and ensure a brutal Castro regime for years to come.  To affect change In Havana the President and Congress should:

• Resist efforts to lift the travel-ban or end embargo prematurely.  Congress should reject all efforts to completely lift the travel ban or the embargo based solely on failed notions about this “new” regime.  Contrary to the common perception, an increase in the amount of tourism dollars to Cuba, under the present regime and political and economic conditions will only create wealth for the Castro brothers and will not go into the hands of the Cuban people.  Cuba’s resorts and their infrastructures are controlled and run by the regime and the recent increase in tourism has only alleviated shortage problems that had forced the regime to the brink of cracking.  Allowing Americans to travel to Cuba will only prop up the regime for that much longer and will accomplish nothing the the way of making lives better for so many hopeless and desperate Cubans.
• Increase family reunification allowances to twice per year.  In 2004, the Bush Administration changed the travel allowances for Cuban-Americans to visit family on the island from one visit per year to one visit every three years.  As an effort to increase family contacts and as a way to provide more information to those thirsty for uncensored news caught in the stranglehold of the Castro regime, travel for the purpose of family reunification should be allowed twice a year in this transitory period so as to feed the desire of many Cubans have for outside information.  Many of these family members will bring much needed medicine and supplies to the island and will refrain from spending money in areas that will directly add to the likelihood of the continuance of the regime.
• Express a quid pro quo policy stance toward the new regime.  While it is unlikely that Raul Castro will loosen the regime’s stranglehold on the Cuban people and their economy, U.S. policy-makers can encourage reform, now and in the future, by setting out a firm and clear quid pro quo policy stance.  The initial goals on the island would be to see free and fair elections, a release of political prisoners, allowing for private bussiness and the ultimate recognition of a free press and private property.  Congress and the President could offer an increase in the sugar quota of a change in the structure of the embargo for each measurable reform.  It would be unwise to simply repeal these bargaining chips that the U.S. has in return for less than authentic and, more importantly, measurable reform.

Any authentic reform in Cuba will entail the recognition of the fact that it is precisely the politically-paralyzed society along with the authoritarian tactics and the Communist Party apparatus that has ensured hopelessness and despair on the island for so many generations.  U.S. policy toward a second Castro regime must be measured and deliberative and must focus efforts and resources toward democrats on the island so that someday Cuba might enjoy the freedom and prosperity that has escaped it for so long.  A smart and measured policy just might ensure that one day Cuba will truly be free; however, drastic and uninformed changes in this policy just might ensure a brutal Castro regime for years to come.

Written by Matthew Willette